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And The Valley Projects: May 10th


With only three weeks to tournament time, we see some unusual reshuffling and additions.

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The National Seeds The Top Eight Seeds

Florida, Stanford, North Carolina, Arkansas, Oregon State, Auburn, Clemson, Texas Tech

Two big changes at the front of the pack:

First, Texas Tech falls back to 8th after dropping a series against Texas after getting the what for from TCU. That’s an unfortunate loss for the Red Raiders because it leaves them with no room for error against a better Oklahoma State if they intended on holding on to their high seed.

Second, Ole Miss fell off the pace after they fell victim to the white hot South Carolina. With a series against Auburn waiting on deck, the Diamondbearz rs can easily make up that ground though.

Taking the Rebears’ place is Clemson, who had their eight game win streak snapped by the Seminoles but ultimately took the series from Florida State. Clemson is living on Easy Street until tournament time, with a series against Austin Peay and Pitt to close the season.

The Regional Hosts

Georgia, Ole Miss, Minnesota, Texas A&M, NC State, Kentucky, Connecticut, Florida State

Okay so I feel like I need to explain this thoroughly because here is where I deviate from RPI the most, so here we go.

Georgia is riiiiight there. The Bulldogs and Ole Miss are just on the outside of the Top 8 seeds. They exists as a buffer between the top 8 seeds and the regional hosts that need some big name wins to get a number lower than 9 next to their names.

Now, Minnesota’s win over Indiana was eye-opening for a number of reasons, and the RPI boost from it was enough to balance out the resume by wins and losses. They didn’t just beat Indiana, they swept them a week after beating Ohio State (a tournament team). Enough to put them over Texas A&M, a team that has looked good but not great. To wit: the Aggies are 7-9 against RPI Top 50 while the Golden Gophers are 10-5. The Aggies play in a harder conference yes but Minnesota’s non-conference schedule blows A&M’s away. Add to that the fact that Minnesota is more likely to win their conference tournament than Texas A&M is to win the SEC and boom, considerable reason to seed Minnesota above Texas A&M.

Right now off RPI alone NC State is not in the top 16 but with series I expect them to win against Wake Forest and Florida State, they should be there at the end of the season. Same deal with Kentucky over UConn, the Wildcats should take series from Mississippi State and Vanderbilt to get a surge ahead of the Huskies.

And Florida State falls to the back of the pack with their loss to Clempsin.

But What About The Tigahs?

Last four out right now, but the Arkansas series win put them back in the discussion. LSU closes out the season with two series against Alabama and Auburn with a midweek against Northwestern State sandwiched in between. They need to walk away from those seven games with no more than two losses to get in before Hoover.

Regional Of Death Of The Week

College Station Regional: Texas A&M, Texas, Arizona, Dallas Baptist

This was a RODOTW earlier in the season, sans Arizona for Oklahoma. Dallas Baptist is supposedly the worst team in this bracket and they are 42nd in RPI and are 32-15 on the season to this point.

We’re going to burn College Station to the ground.

Time is starting to run out on the college baseball regular season, and the projection picture is growing ever clearer. I’ll be here to pump out projections until conference tournament time, so keep it tuned.

And remember,