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Last week the statistical profiles of LSU and Louisiana Tech pointed to it being a good chance for LSU’s offense to make strides and a tough test for the LSU defense but one you’d expect them to manage. While that was the way it played out at times, there were also plenty of moments where it went the other way, with the LSU offense struggling and the defense having the ball moved on it very effectively by LA Tech. Overall the offense did have some solid success, but the defense less so. That could be chalked up to disinterest - I thought so - but it’s worth keeping in mind as we look at Ole Miss.
Last Season:
A note on these stats: The offensive and defensive S&P+ marks are calculated as adjusted scoring averages and for the situational ratings, above 100 is good and below 100 is bad. Links to an explanation on the various stats here, here and here:
Stat Watch
| Data | Ole Miss | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Data | Ole Miss | LSU |
| S&P+ Percentile | 68.4% (42nd) | 83.2% (19th) |
| Off. S&P+ | 37.8 (9th) | 30.5 (42nd) |
| Off. Passing | 121.3 (14th) | 119.2 (16th) |
| Off. Rushing | 109.4 (42nd) | 128.0 (7th) |
| Def. S&P+ | 33.4 (113th) | 21.1 (18th) |
| Def. Passing | 99.4 (70th) | 113.1 (20th) |
| Def. Rushing | 96.3 (76th) | 116.0 (24th) |
| FEI | -.036 (76th) | .102 (28th) |
| F/+ | 4.3% (60th) | 33.5% (21st) |
This Season:
Stat Watch
| Data | Ole Miss | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Data | Ole Miss | LSU |
| S&P+ Percentile | 73% (36th) | 87.2% (19th) |
| Off. S&P+ | 48.1 (4th) | 32.3 (51st) |
| Def. S&P+ | 38.4 (108th) | 16.0 (10th) |
| FEI | .000 (61st) | .215 (7th) |
| F/+ | 13% (51st) | 46% (12th) |
In some ways Ole Miss’ profile resembles LA Tech’s. A great offense, with a horrible defense that's a backbreaker to it’s overall numbers. The big difference is that Ole Miss’ offense is better than LA Tech’s, and is one of the most elite ones in the country. LSU handled it well last year when the Rebels ranked 9th in S&P+, really shutting down their 14th ranked passing game. That will be the test this week, and we’ll learn whether LSU’s struggles last week were merely disinterest or a larger problem. The stats thought LSU had a great offensive game against LA Tech, they jumped from 76th to 51st in Offensive S&P, and that bodes well for the Tigers being able to attack what is a very, very poor Ole Miss defense and especially secondary. How LSU fares in the passing game on both sides is what will likely decide this game.