What’s the realistic best case scenario for 2021? And what’s the realistic worst case scenario?
I think this team wins ten games in the regular season. There is probably a loss to Florida or a trap loss to Ole Miss or Kentucky but there are not a ton of teams on this list that are looking on the upswing. Is this team headed to the playoff? Baring a miracle I don’t think that is in the cards. NY6 Bowl certainly seems within grasp for this team.
I think after a humbling 2020 LSU won’t overlook a single opponent. Last year showed that having LSU on your helmet doesn’t mean shit and the other team can always beat you straight up. They’ll be ready to play every game. I think LSU is better than every team on the schedule except for the one on 11/6, but they will be capable of winning that game. So I think the best case scenario is a trip to the CFP. The worst case is losing Week 1 and the problems just snowball from there like they did last season.
Like I said earlier, there’s only one game I think LSU doesn’t have a talent advantage. While LSU returns far more experience than the Tide, that won’t matter by Week 10, so I predict LSU loses by 11. I wanna say they go 11-1 otherwise, but there are still too many question marks, so I think they also lose in Oxford. Their defense will still be an abomination, but I think Matt Corral only turns it over two times instead of six and LSU loses by 3. The final record is 10-2, highlighted by a blowout win against Auburn, a dramatic goal-line stand against Florida and a decisive defeat of the Aggies to give LSU the final NY6 spot over Texas’ *only SEC team. Since I’m getting specific I’ll say LSU faces UNC and Top-5 pick Sam Howell in the Peach Bowl and Thorpe Award winner Derek Stingley Jr is drafted third overall to Jacksonville.
*for the 2021-22 college football season
I think this is a 9-3 team with a range of outcomes from 10-2 if things break their way to 7-5 if things REALLY don’t.
All in all, fine
This is LSU. The blue chip ratio (percentage of blue chip signees over the last 4 years) of LSU is fifth in the nation and higher than Clemson. LSU has the talent to be a national contender year in and year out. I think 11-1 would be not insane, but I expect something more like 9-3. 7-5 is what I would view as things have gone way wrong.
I feel very good about the first 4 games of the seasons, although I am a little wary about UCLA since they are getting to go up against a real opponent before they play the Tigers. I still feel like LSU is better than its first four opponents by a lot this year so I expect a 4-0 start. Auburn is the first big game of the season to me. Auburn, Florida, and A&M are the most likely losses outside of Bama and all are at home this year. I feel like we will drop one of those and Bama this year. My guess is we have a shock loss to someone else. I think a good bowl is in the cards and a much more pleasant season than last year.
We also prove yet again this season that no one parties better than LSU fans.
The goal is, as always, to win the SEC. Bama loses a lot and isn’t as loaded as they were the past two seasons, but they are still the best team in the country. Depending on whether Max Johnson can be an elite, LSU can compete for the national title. If he’s merely good to really good, then LSU is playing for a New Years Day bowl. That’s the level of this program, and that has not changed.
Worst case? Well, if we lose our entire starting lineup going into spring practice, then lose most of that spring lineup again to injuries and opt outs, then we’re still a .500 team. That’s what last season showed. So if literally everything goes wrong, LSU is still a winning program. Let that be your guide.
As I said yesterday I’m super high on this team...that said there’s a few ways this season is a bit of a flop.
Let’s start with the coordinators. You and I have called the same amount of games at the SEC level as Jake Peetz and Daronte Jones. In a year where Orgeron has to nail both his offensive and defensive coordinator hires he’s placing a heck of a lot of faith in a pair of rookies. For his sake, they better work.
We gotta talk about the defense. Yeah they’ll be better than literally the worst in school history, but how big of a jump are we talking about specifically at linebacker and safety? All summer long Orgeron has said he feels they have four starters at linebacker. That’s all well and good but Orgeron said something similar about the running back trio of Ty Davis-Price, John Emery, and Chris Curry last year and how did that work out?
Is LSU just really deep at linebacker? Or are they rotating four guys because nobody has yet to establish themselves? You could probably ask the same questions about the safety position. And what about the offensive line, specifically the lack of depth? Someone will surely have to miss time, do you feel good about any of the second stringers LSU currently has? I know I don’t.
If those three units rebound I think LSU’s right back to being a 10-win team that’s playing in a New Year’s Six bowl. If they don’t it’s more likely this team’s 8-4 and we’re googling head coaching candidates.