Editor’s note: Hey y’all wanted to introduce everyone to Saul, the fourth five-star new writer I’m adding to the ATVS staff. Saul is already part of the SB Nation family, and writes for the Man City site Bitter and Blue so check out his work there if you’re an EPL fan. Saul’s gonna bring a bit of a gambling flair to ATVS.
The LSU Tigers kick off the season this weekend. So, ahead of the return of college football for the tigers, we will have this new series as we try and make three really specific predictions for this game.
From third down efficacy, player props, team defense/offense numbers and more, we will have a little bit of everything as we enter the new season.
Today, we take a look at predicting three specific areas for the team.
1 Third down conversions percentage will be at or higher than 50%
I know, I know, the Tigers have a new head coach, a new QB(‘s), and a host of other new players and recruits in the program. So, why do I think the third down conversion rate will be better? Simple, LSU has one of the best receiving corps in the country. That is why especially against a weak FSU side, this team can really shine on Sunday. As a reference, last seasons overall rate under old coaches and players was at 36.98% per CFBstats.com.
These Noles are not the ones of our youth or even 5-10 years ago. Gone are the Derwin James, Jalen Ramsey’s and more. LSU, led by No. 7 Kayshon Boutte, can be a real headache on Sunday for the opposing side. Add Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Jack Bech and whoever the QB is (not named as of writing) should be more than alright. Brian Kelly is the CEO type head coach so I expect the first game to be buttoned up in situational football terms.
2 Take the over in LSU team points total
Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame could score and in bunches, so even though this s his first game in charge at LSU, I expect a pro type offense that can make things easy for the QB. That is why I feel comfortable going over 27.5 points on team points this Sunday. Thanks to our friends over at Draft Kings, the line is 27.5 at +105.
From there we can add that FSU allowed 26.5 points last season and so all LSU has to do is be average and they can get there. I expect them to be better so we could get the over here.
3 LSU’s defensive line will have four or more sacks
The cream of LSU’s roster is this defensive line. One of the best in the nation led by juniors Jaquelin Roy and BJ Ojulari, potential first rounders next spring, this team will be able to get after FSU’s QB Jordan Travis. We then add Maason Smith, who sneakily might be the best defensive lineman on the roster and Mizzou transfer Mekhi Wingo, this team is poised to be a real threat to all offenses this season.
LSU averaged just 2.92 a game last season and with this being a stacked group for us, I can see the pressure being upped especially as we know Travis is a run-first QB which can lead to easy sacks. Kelly would be wise to use them early and often which can lead to success.
That will do it for this week’s very specific predictions. Let us know what you think and give us some of your own!