From third down efficacy, player props, team defense/offense numbers and more, we will have a little bit of everything as we enter the SEC schedule.
Today, we take a look at predicting three specific areas for the team.
1 LSU’s defense will hold MSU to 60% or under in red zone success percentage
We are starting out hot as the Bulldogs have a whopping 90% success rate in their first two games (stats via CFBSTATS). Obviously hugely caveated by the fact that it cams vs Memphis and Arizona State, still a successful number.
This is why I love this call as LSU’s defense while a little banged up had a really nice bounce back game vs Southern last week. That paired with small improvements weekly and a less than intimidating offense by MSU and I like this percentage to be held under 60%. If they have say five trips to the red zone I see the defense holding them in at least two and maybe three of them.
2 Take the over in the game at 52.5 as of writing
What can we expect from Brian Kelly’s first SEC game? Points and against a Mike Leach defense expect a bunch of them. Even in MSU’s two early games vs inferior opponents they let 23 and 17 points passed respectively and that should be music to Tigers fans ears.
Thanks to our friends over at Draft Kings, the line is 52.5 at -110.
It’s why I feel confident taking the over in the game as we know the Tigers will score and MSU might equal them. With Kayshon Boutte back in the fold and a more steady and ready QB in Jayden Daniels, LSU can score a lot. It is a bit of threading the needle as with our first prediction could miss if they score a ton in the red zone, but Leach’s offense is known for home runs so I think we can hit both this week.
3 Jayden Daniels will complete 25 passes or more
A really striking split emerged after these first two games, almost equal pass attempts and almost equal completions and yes that is taking in to account Daniels being rested through the Southern game. What this shows me is Kelly is more than happy with airing it out a bit. If 34-36 passes are a given, LSU could have much success in the air on Saturday as MSU has a notoriously Leachian defense which makes them prone to points as they showed the first two weeks. So, with more passes and a similar hit rate one can assume Kelly’s first game will be high scoring and lead to easier completions for Daniels.
Final score prediction: LSU 31-24 Mississippi State
That will do it for this week’s very specific predictions. Let us know what you think and give us some of your own!