And The Valley Shook - LSU Recruiting 2018: Early Signing Period And BeyondLSU Tigers Blog of the Week for 52,136 Weeks in a Row and Countinghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/46725/andthevalleyshook_fave.png2018-02-15T18:39:01-06:00http://www.andthevalleyshook.com/rss/stream/165576552018-02-15T18:39:01-06:002018-02-15T18:39:01-06:00Sifting Through the National Signing Day 2018 Fallout
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<figcaption>Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Late to the party, but here are some thoughts on LSU’s finish in 2018 recruiting.</p> <p id="mXeEHr">If you’ve read this site for any duration of time beyond, “Hey this is the first article I’ve read on this site” you are well aware that I’m staunch believer in the recruiting star system. Is it flawless? No. Evaluating human skillsets is one of the most difficult endeavors imaginable, so it would be ludicrous to assume there would be a 100-percent hit rate when trying to extrapolate the potential of teenagers. Evaluation has improved as kids do more and more popular camp circuits, game footage is more readily available (and quality versions at that) and services devote more resources to actual evaluators. I turn to the 247 Composite, since it takes into account all of the major service’s rankings. So this is all a very long lede to say, if you came here expecting me to now trash recruiting rankings in the name of supporting my favorite school, you’ve come to the wrong place.</p>
<p id="j6x3oW">That said, I also believe in being objective both ways. When people start running through their commitments and rattling off how every other signee is underrated, it typically means you are in for a bad signing class. The reality is, your class probably does have one-to-three guys that are underrated. It also has one-to-three that are totally overrated. Hit rates are really difficult to evaluate. I’ve tinkered with the idea of exploring this topic myself and trying to create my own evaluation system, but what’s your standard? </p>
<p id="0Mf1bO">For example, take Ed Paris. Paris ranked as the 41st recruit nationally in the 247 composite. 247 picks 32 five-star talents a year, aligning with the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-draft">NFL draft</a> slots. That means Paris was considered a fringe five-star talent coming out of high school. In four seasons at LSU he’s struggled to lock down starting roles, and never really been a central contributor until this past season, which he then lost to injury. Paris is probably considered a bust by his recruiting ranking standard right? But what if he gets his fifth year of eligibility and comes back and has an All-SEC season? Could we really term any player that made All-SEC a bust? </p>
<p id="OkFG3b">And then you get into the difficulty of defining success for players at other schools, especially non skill roles. Does anyone really know how well Auburn’s right guardplayed last year? Imagine tracking that year-over-year. At least skill position players we can blanket apply some type of statistical measures. But even still, D.J. Chark’s numbers look pedestrian on a national scale, but they were really strong for us. He was a three-star on the composite. To me, he’s a high achiever, but if you put his data into a national hierarchy, he’d come out looking average. </p>
<p id="E7vmFD">So we’re left with these loose and rough definitions of success and bust, and it’s all just very difficult to evaluate. So if you are looking for my general impression of this signing class it’s that it’s below our standard and certainly below the expectation we had when hiring Orgeron. That said, people want to curious tuck away <a href="https://247sports.com/Season/2012-Football/CompositeTeamRankings">Miles’ class in 2012</a>, which ranked 13th in the composite and had a lower score than this year’s class, despite signing 25 players. So, I don’t buy the oppo-hype of WORST SIGNING CLASS IN TWO DECADES OMGZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Both of these things can be true. I’m disappointed, but it’s just a single signing class and there are some things to like about it. So, let me hit the high notes:</p>
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<li id="e4Bsdr">Davin Cotton and Nelson Jenkins may be the most undervalued guys in this class. Both were considered top Louisiana prospects heading into their senior season, and both were injured early in their final campaigns. Cotton is a guy Orgeron specifically mentioned he believes can be day-one contributor due to his high-school coaching (former Tiger defensive lineman Byron Dawson is the head coach at Evangel Academy in Shreveport) and explosiveness. Jenkins was always less-heralded, but word in recruiting circles building to early signing day is that Alabama was still working away at trying to lure him to Tuscaloosa. LSU also <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2017/2/16/14642536/nelson-jenkins-commits-lsu-football-recruiting">offered Jenkins in February</a>, which is a strong indicator they held a high grade on him. I’m bullish on both exceeding their rankings.</li>
<li id="9HoIQA">Cameron Wire is another guy I like quite a bit. Offer lists can be shaky means of evaluation, but Wire has 20 something offers from a lot of big time national programs. At 6-6, 280 he’s really long and project-able. Another guy with a solid hit rate chance in my eyes.</li>
<li id="zBCg2g">Add to that list Dare Rosenthal. At one point in time, Rosenthal was mentioned as a potential no. 1 overall prospect. Not in the state of Louisiana. In America. He briefly committed to Alabama. Held a brief flirtation with IMG which saw him move and move back to Louisiana and finished out his career at a small school in Louisiana. Rosenthal is 6-7, 327 and looks like a prototypical NFL left tackle. His <a href="https://www.hudl.com/video/3/4406373/5a68b5bcbd74e2293cc51a0a">senior tape is stinking good</a>, albeit up against a lower caliber of athletes. He says he wants to play defensive line, but I think they will lean him back to offense once he gets on campus. </li>
<li id="9bvumL">So there’s four guys I think could outperform their rankings and fortunately, they are all linemen. If you want to point to an “underrated group” those are the guys, for my money.</li>
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<h4 id="bcSJhJ">Terrace Marshall and Ja’Marr Chase are the type of elite receiver talents to really bring the LSU passing game up to standard. </h4>
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<li id="uYHMYM">I’ll play wait and see on whether that comes to fruition, but these two will be household names in Baton Rouge by the end of 2019 at the latest.</li>
<li id="b75Cxa">The staff totally biffed it not getting a corner in this class. Worse yet, they could have probably had four-star Mario Goodrich but couldn’t properly prioritize their boards. When you spend multiple years years recruiting Patrick Surtain Jr. to be the head of the class, the idea of landing Goodrich seems like a luxury. When you land neither, you are damaging your depth chart.</li>
<li id="tlFTrv">There’s a few takes I outright don’t understand. Jaray Jenkins and Tae Provens come immediately to mind. Both are three-star guys. Both are smaller-framed types that have return ability. That seems like a clear one or the other situation to me, even if one is listed at receiver and the other at running back. Instead, we took both. </li>
<li id="qEjotC">We still don’t know much of anything about Travez Moore other than his high athletic promise. I’m not counting on him being much and they used a scholarship on him. They need him to make impact.</li>
<li id="OEgeKn">I suspect both JUCO offensive linemen will be starters considering the somewhat unexpected departure of <span>Will Clapp</span>. </li>
<li id="5PBhLA">I can be talked into liking a guy like Zach Sheffer or Dantrieze Scott. Both have upside and potential. But the way this class shakes out we need them both to hit in some capacity, whereas most years the would be flyer types to fill out the class.</li>
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<h4 id="awt5wm">We also came up two spots short, and it’s not yet clear how O will use those spots. </h4>
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<li id="qy8yI5">I hope not on fringe prospects, especially if there’s any possibility of back-counting in a loaded crop next season.</li>
<li id="iV5B0T">I think the management issues reared their head when the news about Cole Tracy counting showed up. I’m guessing the staff wanted to finish with James Foster and Mario Goodrich on top of Joseph, Surtain Jr. and Chase. They turned away Justin Watkins for similar reasons. Instead, they only got two of the final five targets. </li>
<li id="juEcGv">Not landing a QB is once again sub-optimal. Signs look good for nabbing someone in 2019, but any relief of going through the throes of never having enough available talent at that position, or squandering what we do have on hand don’t seem apparent yet. </li>
<li id="tGcomQ">I said it in my Surtain Jr. piece and I’ll say here again. Delivering signing classes of this nature won’t buy O any favors in Baton Rouge. </li>
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<h4 id="R1PvuH">He’s got to deliver on the field next season or his job will be on thin ice.</h4>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/15/17017974/lsu-football-national-signing-day-2018-ed-orgeron-class-rankingPaul Crewe2018-02-08T09:05:01-06:002018-02-08T09:05:01-06:00Watch: Kelvin Joseph’s Emotional Signing Ceremony
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<p>It’s the ones you get that count.</p> <div id="hYJFtK"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WJRYFZEWlhk?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/8/16989104/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-video-watch-kelvin-joseph-signing-ceremonyBilly Gomila2018-02-07T17:57:47-06:002018-02-07T17:57:47-06:00WATCH: Ed Orgeron’s Signing Day Press Conference
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<figcaption>Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Coach O discusses the day’s hits and misses.</p> <div id="9Ub7oo"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pK8ZobNdZpU?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/7/16988796/2018-lsu-football-watch-ed-orgeron-signing-day-press-conferenceBilly Gomila2018-02-07T12:19:31-06:002018-02-07T12:19:31-06:00BOOM! LSU Signs Stud Receiver Ja’Marr Chase
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<figcaption>Student Sports Flickr</figcaption>
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<p>Tigers land another top-shelf wideout.</p> <p id="Ju8jGt">The Tigers closed on Louisiana’s other top wide receiver prospect today when <a href="https://247sports.com/Player/JaMarr-Chase-82059">composite four-star wideout Ja’Marr Chase</a> signed his national letter of intent.</p>
<p id="BnsW9O">Chase, from Archbishop Rummel in Metairie, is a top-100 overall prospect, and the fourth-rated player in the state of Louisiana for the class of 2018. He was long considered an out-of-state lean, committing to Florida and also strongly considering TCU at one time. In the end, LSU receivers coach Mickey Joseph was able to win the long game, and secured a player that has a five-star rating in the 247 Sports Top 247.</p>
<p id="c0nSvA">Chase, 6-1, 195 pounds, will have a chance to step in with classmate Terrace Marshall and compete for playing time quickly. </p>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/7/16942730/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-national-signing-day-jamarr-chaseBilly Gomila2018-02-07T10:22:00-06:002018-02-07T10:22:00-06:00Kelvin Joseph Signs With LSU
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<p>Stud defensive back will stick with the home team.</p> <p id="AgOmCW">DBU’s future stays bright with the addition of another top-100 prospect, as Kelvin Joseph inked his national letter of intent today.</p>
<p id="JoOMx4">Joseph, a Baton Rouge native who prepped at Scotlandville High, <a href="https://247sports.com/Player/Kelvin-Joseph-88322">is a composite four-star prospect</a>, ranked 42nd overall nationally, and No. 2 in the state of Louisiana.</p>
<p id="m5XLM7">“Fat,” as he is known, committed to the Tigers as an underclassmen, only to <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2017/10/2/16404314/4-star-db-kelvin-joseph-decommits-lsu-football-recruiting">drop his pledge</a> during his senior season. After some thought, <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2017/10/2/16404314/4-star-db-kelvin-joseph-decommits-lsu-football-recruiting">he re-committed in January</a> at the U.S. Army All-American game. Joseph is 6-1, 195 pounds and projects as a safety.</p>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/7/16943142/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-national-signing-day-kelvin-joseph-signsBilly Gomila2018-02-07T09:28:49-06:002018-02-07T09:28:49-06:00Patrick Surtain Jr. Chooses Alabama
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<figcaption>Student Sports Flickr</figcaption>
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<p>Well, this sucks.</p> <p id="MiDH2a">In what can only be describing as a significant blow, the nation’s no. 1 CB recruit and a player LSU recruited heavily for three years picked Alabama this morning on ESPNU. On first blush, losing a player from the state of Florida to college football’s current juggernaut isn’t terribly surprising news. But if you’ve follow Surtain Jr.’s recruitment, you know this is absolutely devastating news. </p>
<p id="nppZQH">Surtain Jr. has routinely and repeatedly emphasized LSU is his leader throughout his high school career, even deep into the recruiting cycle this season. His strong relationship with Corey Raymond, who is an elite recruiter in the state of Florida, along with having family in the area, as his father, former NFL CB Patrick Surtain, is from New Orleans, were major reasons driving his interest. LSU also cleared depth chart and de-prioritized other CB prospects to make a path for Surtain Jr. to step onto the field immediately in Baton Rouge. </p>
<p id="KwWept">There’s no way to term this other than failure. Three years of hefty commitment to a player with Louisiana ties is now headed to your biggest division rival and the measuring stick for elite level college football, Alabama. I cannot emphasize enough that virtually everyone in the know in recruiting expected Surtain Jr. to pick LSU all the way up through early this morning. It’s a devastating blow.</p>
<p id="qmUPFR">No single recruit makes or breaks a signing class, but Surtain Jr. is one of 2-3 pieces this staff looked to build this class around. Terrace Marshall is another, and perhaps JaMarr Chase, who still hasn’t officially picked, might be the 3rd. And now that’s gone.</p>
<p id="LcvuIV">It’s tough to swallow. It’s tough to not look at this and see anything other but a major blow to the Orgeron era. We were promised a few things with hiring Orgeron. No. 1 was always elite recruiting. No. 2 was hiring the best staff in America. This offseason LSU will finish with a class outside the top 10 and fired their offensive coordinator to internally promote a 60-year-old who hasn’t served as coordinator in 20 years. Many will say 2019 is the major recruiting year for LSU, but it’s hard to get excited for a potential class when you fail to lock up a player you worked 3 years to sign. Trending data right now screams sell, sell, sell. Orgeron has heavily lost the faith of the fanbase these past few months. The only way to win it back will be on the field. </p>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/7/16985108/patrick-surtain-jr-chooses-alabama-lsu-football-recruitingPaul Crewe2018-02-07T08:26:31-06:002018-02-07T08:26:31-06:00Tigers Lose Goodrich to Clemson
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<figcaption>Student Sports Flickr</figcaption>
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<p>Tigers lose out on four-star prospect to the ACC.</p> <p id="pRCjQQ">LSU failed to closed out the 2018 recruiting class with a key final addition, as four-star athlete Mario Goodrich of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, signed with Clemson.</p>
<p id="I7wqmm"><a href="https://247sports.com/Player/Mario-Goodrich-46036458">Ranked 114th in the nation overall</a>, and fourth as an athlete, Goodrich was the subject of a heated recruiting battle down the stretch between the Tigers, Georgia and Clemson. Goodrich had been a Nebraska commitment for a while, but re-opened his recruitment this fall as more of the nation’s top programs came calling. The Tigers had settled on <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/1/16/16895338/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-quarterback-james-foster-mario-goodrich-who-to-take">Goodrich or quarterback James Foster for the final open spot</a> in the 2018 class, but Clemson. was able to close the deal late with a big official visit last week, making Goodrich a major priority.</p>
<p id="097Tx5">At 6-2 and 180 pounds, Goodrich is listed as an athlete recruit and had offers to play both receiver and defensive back from different programs. </p>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/7/16953160/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-national-signing-day-mario-goodrich-clemson-footballBilly Gomila2018-02-06T23:01:01-06:002018-02-06T23:01:01-06:00National Signing Day 2018: Primer/Open Thread
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<p>Oh, hey, we still have more recruiting to wrap up!</p> <p id="PbIysC">It’s that time, folks. National Signing Day is upon us. While the new <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2017/12/19/16793614/early-signing-day-2017-a-primer-lsu-football-recruiting?_ga=2.198949679.1253081986.1517896677-781578580.1495721657">Early Signing Period</a> may have taken some luster off the first Wednesday in February, there’s still a handful of spots to be filled and a few bit time prospects left in play. After the Early Signing Period, LSU is sitting at 21 players signed in the capped 25-man signing class. Who will fill the final four spots? Are we in for any major surprises? </p>
<h1 id="5zs32e">The Targets</h1>
<p id="oknQRg">All eyeballs are focused on a small grouping of prospects that will finalize LSU’s signing class in 2018. Let’s take a look at either of the remaining possibilities.</p>
<h2 id="sXczDe">Kelvin Joseph, Defensive Back — 10 a.m. (all times CT)</h2>
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<p id="ZwD9G5">No announcement for Joseph, who committed back at the U.S. Army All-American bowl in January. He’s signing with LSU and will be one of the four final spots in this class. </p>
<h2 id="pwJVLS">Mario Goodrich, Defensive Back — 7:30 a.m., <a href="https://www.facebook.com/kmbc9/">Streaming Live on Facebook</a>
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<p id="Mb7Zw8">Goodrich is the first announcement of the day and might tip the cap to how LSU’s final slots will come together. His recruitment has been a bit of an odyssey. The former Nebraska commit de-committed in December ahead of receiving an offer from LSU and naming them his leader. His offer list grew with the additions of Florida, Arkansas and Clemson in January. For the past month, the debate in LSU recruiting circles revolves around whether Goodrich or QB James Foster would secure LSU’s final open spot. Goodrich recently attended an official visit to Clemson and things seem trending upward for them, but the staff is still pushing. </p>
<p id="qhSM1B"><strong>Pick: Clemson</strong></p>
<h2 id="MzpMrl">Patrick Surtain Jr., Cornerback — 9 a.m., ESPNU</h2>
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<p id="lHXWvv">The big fish. The composite 5-star, U.S. Army All-American is the prized piece of LSU’s 2018 signing class. The no. 1 rated CB in America represents 3-years of work for DBs coach Corey Raymond and DC Dave Aranda. Surtain has repeatedly named LSU his leader throughout the recruiting process and has long maintained his comfort level with the school would be the predominant factor in his decision. Of late, he’s used the word “comfortable” when describing his feelings toward LSU. Nothing is a done deal until papers are signed, but things look very strong for Surtain to ultimately pick LSU and sign on Wednesday.</p>
<p id="2UeBwf"><strong>Pick: LSU</strong></p>
<h2 id="pvuQuO">James Foster, Quarterback — 10 a.m. </h2>
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<p id="rGkAw8">Just a couple weeks ago, we <a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/1/16/16895338/2018-lsu-football-recruiting-quarterback-james-foster-mario-goodrich-who-to-take">debated the merits of taking a QB vs. a CB</a>, specifically James Foster vs. Mario Goodrich. I pitched my case for going for Goodrich, who I think has a better chance to be a for sure impact player at the next level. But if coach visits are any indication, the staff seems to be prioritizing Foster, sending <a href="https://twitter.com/YungSimba4/status/958836627983470593">nearly the entire coaching staff to see him last week</a>. Was it enough? I’m not sure. Foster got the hard sell on his visit to FSU from Willie Taggart and co. All the experts think FSU wins this battle.</p>
<p id="jmqElT"><strong>Pick: FSU</strong></p>
<h2 id="Jzrjps">JaMarr Chase, Wide Receiver — Noon, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/SECcountry/">Streaming Live on Facebook</a>
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<p id="DgeNLO">The top-100 receiver has taken the long route to National Signing Day. He’s committed to both Kansas and Florida at points in the last year and hoped to commit to TCU on national television before a scheduling error prevented him from being able to do so. Throughout that saga, LSU quietly let him work through his recruitment and receivers coach Mickey Joseph provided persistent effort. Chase kept LSU at an arm’s distance for much of his recruitment, truly making the staff earn his interest. Though his family were always keen to the local school, Chase dreamed of going out of state and had a strained relationship with from former LSU receivers coach Dameyune Craig, which put LSU at a disadvantage. Yet, Mickey Joseph worked away and his relentless effort looks like it will finally pay off.</p>
<p id="oU76RJ"><strong>Pick: LSU</strong></p>
<h2 id="CVMh4Q">Glenn Beal, Tight End — Noon</h2>
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<p id="hyiMkA">The three-star tight end has been a fringe prospect throughout most of the recruiting season. He never took an official to Baton Rouge, but has been on campus a good number of times, minimizing the importance of the visit. Right now, it looks like he will ink with A&M on Signing Day, but the staff probably feels they can get him into the barn if some pieces don’t go their way early Wednesday.</p>
<p id="ABUWlX"><strong>Pick: Texas A&M</strong></p>
<h2 id="kP8gUy">
<strong>Michael Williams</strong><strong>, Athlete — Time Unknown</strong>
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<p id="OeBhMi">Like Beal, Williams has been a fringe prospect for the coaching staff throughout most of this cycle. They’ve kept him engaged, but prioritized other prospects ahead of him. A couple weeks ago Williams officially visited Texas and verbally committed. The jumbo athlete is a prospect many locals really like, though he’s not distinguished himself on the national scene as a top tier prospect. LSU thinks he could grow into a DL. Can they swoop in with some late action and flip him to his home town team?</p>
<p id="zbcsVt"><strong>Pick: LSU</strong></p>
<h1 id="cH8eA0">Finishing the Class</h1>
<p id="qq9j4R">I see LSU finishing with Joseph, Surtain Jr., Chase, and Williams. The staff’s indecisiveness on Goodrich/Foster looks to have cost them both. That coupled with bungling the effort to sign a kicker and have him not count against the 25-man limit puts a bit of a damper on what is a pretty strong class. </p>
<p id="Wtdfeb">That said, no doors are closed just yet. There’s a chance Goodrich or Foster wind up feeling LSU is the best place for them and do sign with LSU on Wednesday. Right now, I think the tea leaves suggest otherwise, but things can very quickly change tonight. </p>
<p id="4tnEMZ">Overall, a pretty strong haul, albeit one that may underwhelm for folks who hoped to sign a class like the one Kirby Smart is inking in Athens this year. Get Surtain, Joseph and Chase to sign and that’s three top-100 players. That last spot is fairly inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. </p>
https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/2018/2/6/16977546/national-signing-day-2018-primer-lsu-football-recruitingPaul Crewe